Washington Examiner’s Stephen G. Smith Lays Out How Obama Could Win If Obamacare Overturned, Others Not Buying It
I have no problem with Mr. Smith. I read his articles here and there and never have really taken issue with his ideas or his thought process, until now. I have linked the article from the Washington Examiner above and suggest you all read it to get the full effect of what Mr. Smith is trying to say. In effect, he is saying that if Obamacare is ruled unconstitutional then the President will not have to talk about it during the campaign and can stick to other issues while getting his base behind him using the court decision to drive more voters. If Obamacare would happen to get through the Supreme Court, however, then he has his prize legislation in tact, and in the words of Stephen Smith, “will be able to argue that the Administration always knew Obamacare was constitutional, and the expedited review will muffle the issue in the general-election campaign.” I am not buying this logic, and let me show you why I believe Mr. Smith got this one wrong.
I do agree that if it is struck down at the Supreme Court, the President will be able to use that to get more people out in his favor, maybe tipping the election into his hands if he can get enough people that are not already soured on him. While that may be the case, and the verdict is still out, it does not mean that it will not be a topic of discussion during the debates or even out on the stump. This is a heated issue, and if Republicans knew better they would make sure that no matter if they win or lose at the Supreme Court the people remember what legislation was pushed through Congress that they did not want. To allow the topic to be put aside would be detrimental to the Republican chances next year to take back the White House.
We have to remember that Obamacare was one of the deciding factors in pushing the House back into Republican hands, along with the economy as a whole. You do not sit you best hitter on the bench when there is two outs in the ninth inning, you make sure that person is up there to bat. The same premise is true here, only on not such a glamorous scale I suppose. Obamacare will be one of the factors that drive Independents and Republicans out against this President, and if we just forget that it ever happened if it does get tossed by the Supreme Court it is playing into the hands of the Democrats, nationally and locally.
The same would be true if the Republicans did not talk about it during the campaign if the legislation were to be upheld by the high court. This statement, the one I was mentioned above by Mr. Smith, is the one that confuses me the most. Mr. Smith says that it would not be a topic of conversation if the high court ruled the law Constitutional, but I beg to differ. It would be even more of a talking point for the nominee than if it was struck down, in my opinion. This one piece of legislation will be right up there during the debates, just as it should be. For the Republicans to leave this issue and move to another one could be a force against them, not for them, against this President how is so very proud of the law.
The President’s people are trying to use this for political gain, there is no question about it. They believe the same way that Mr. Smith from the examiner believes, and that is win, lose, or draw, it will work out for them in the end. This is why they have moved straight to the Supreme Court, because they know a decision will be brought down right in the middle of the Presidential campaign, just months before we would vote for President. I still believe this to be the wrong way to look at it, because it takes into account that no one would be talking about it after the fact. I just cannot see that happening if the Republicans really want to win the election against President Obama. They have to use this to their advantage, and I would counter the claim by Mr. Smith at the Examiner by saying that no matter what the outcome at the high court, the President is in bad shape. He cannot win at the Supreme Court, he can only lose. If he gets to keep his star accomplishment, that is going to drive Conservatives wild, out in force for the Republican candidate. If it gets tossed by the high court, he may be able to get those who liked the idea of Obamacare out in force, but we have to presume that many of those are already going to be in his corner anyway. When we look at the polls, he will not drive many Independents to his side if the law is struck down, only those who have been in his corner since the beginning to begin with. This is lose lose for him, because there still is an x-factor that will trump everything: the economy!
When we look at the poll numbers, many of those numbers we are looking at are on a national level. The real test is to look at polling in the individual states, because this, not a national vote, is how we pick our Presidents. While it does show a little about how the election may or may not go this far out, what it does not show is how the states themselves are looking at the President right now. Look at PA and OH for instance. The President is polling extremely low in two states that he carried, and one state that Democrats never have to worry about, PA. In PA, the latest Quinnipiac University poll shows that voters by a margin of 51% do not believe the President deserves another term, against only 44% who believe he does. This has to worry the President’s people, even if we are so far out of the election. If the President has to spend time in a state where he would normally be a shoe-in, it would take money and resources away from hitting states like Florida and Ohio where he will need to be on his game to win the next election. The Democrats do not want the next election to come down to Florida, Ohio, AND Pennsylvania, or the Presidents chances go from bad to almost impossible.
The economy is having this effect on states that would normally be a win for the Democrats, and if they do not play their cards right they will lose these states and the election. I have already stated in many other blogs I believe that there is no way the President can win this next election, barring some major uptick in the economy which no one seems to believe will happen. The economy is the x-factor in this race, with Obamacare as another issue the President may have to explain to the people who did not want it yet voted for him the last time around. This time the President will not have a push over to run against as he did with John McCain. This time he will have to face off against Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, or if we get really lucky and get to see a new face, maybe even Herman Cain. But no matter who the nominee is, they can use Obamacare to their advantage, no matter what happens in the high court in the middle of the year.