The 2010 election is (finally) upon us, which means it’s time to engage in that favorite of political pastimes – prognostication. After all, what good is an election without predictions?
For pretty much every election for the past twenty years I’ve kept my own predictions and have done fairly well, (but I did miss that Al Gore and the popular vote thing in 2000…and thought Hillary would be the nominee in 2008). But it seems like it would be more interesting to put it in a column for everyone to see and comment on. Plus, given the multitude of pollsters (and even online markets such as Intrade), there is so much information out there that everyone can now get in on the act.
With that in mind, I decided to put together an online survey that everyone can use to make their own “official” predictions. The entrant who comes closest will get a free download of the “Grassroots 101: Fundamentals of Grassroots Politics” series".
On to the predictions…
The US House of Representatives
Republicans will win control of the House of Representatives by making a net gain of at least sixty-five seats. Yes, I know that’s a little past the high end of the “smart money”, but I think the frustration (and excitement) among conservatives and Republicans is tremendous and liberals are deflated. I also think Obama’s messaging has been awful (and poorly targeted), and pollsters have been intentionally underselling what they’re seeing in the numbers, simply because they find it historically hard to believe and don’t want to look foolish. read more »