An astute political observer by the name of Machiavelli once said that “Anyone wishing to see what is to be must consider what has been”.  Given that recent polls have shown the race for President to be essentially tied, a look at the “tale of the tape” from a current and historical perspective is in order.

The Economy:

No president since World War II has won re-election with an unemployment rate above 7.2%.  The current rate is 8.3%, and has been above 8% for forty-two straight months.  The economy is growing at an annual rate of just 1.5%, and the only president in recent years to run for re-election with a worse growth rate was Jimmy Carter.

The Consumer Confidence level is currently about 60%, which is historically (and electorally) awful, since it was 65% when Carter got clobbered by Reagan in 1980.

According to the Rasmussen Poll, a majority of Americans (54%) think that the economy and their own finances (52%) are getting worse.  Only 40% believe that things will be any better five years from now, and that number is down to 35% among business owners who recently found out that Obama thinks that they didn’t build their own businesses.

The last two times that the economy dominated the election like it does today was in 1992 and 1980, which weren’t good years for incumbents.

Job Approval:  read more »

Already I’ve seen social media comments from constitutional conservatives complaining about Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan. It’s a given, no viable candidate can ever meet their standards. I could have predicted it, it would not have mattered who was selected, the VP pick would have taken a vote in favor of the wrong piece of legislation or made an endorsement they didn’t like. So I would like to propose a moratorium on complaining about Romney/Ryan. No candidate who accepts our constitutional positions would be electable anyway. I wish they would be, but with the left wing control of the media, the public teacher’s union focusing more on socialist indoctrination than education and so many of the churches, who should be fighting the rot in our society, meekly going along with liberalism, it just isn’t so. We have much education to do and we need some time to do it.  read more »