good things are ahead
Michael Barone has taken a look at the results of the Massachusetts Senate race on a district by district basis (among the Mass congressional districts) and notes the following:
Coakley carries districts where Obama got 65% or more of the vote and runs essentially even in the district where he got 64%, and Scott Brown runs ahead in districts where Obama got less than 64% of the vote.
Let’s extrapolate those numbers to the nation as a whole and assume that a district that voted 64% or more for Obama is safe for Democrats even under the most dire of circumstances. How many such districts are there? Answer, according to this source: 103. The other 332 districts voted 63% or less for Obama. Interestingly, there are more 64%+ Obama districts in the West (36) than in the East (27) and more in the South (21) than in the Midwest (19).
All but two of the 103 Obama 64%+ districts are represented by Democrats. The two exceptions are Louisiana 2, where Republican An Joseph Cao beat Democrat William “Cold Cash” Jefferson in a December 2008 runoff, and Florida 19, whose incumbent Robert Wexler resigned and a special election will be held in April. And, yes, it will be amazing if this heavily Jewish district in Palm Beach and Broward Counties elects a Republican; heavily Jewish Brookline and Newton voted heavily against Scott Brown in Massachusetts.
whole lotta' red
Here's a look at Karl Rove's latest US Senate race map. As you can see, there's a lotta' red there. And, of course, keep in mind that Massachusetts was "solid blue" just two weeks ago.
Larry Sabato also has a list of current projections up on Rasmussen's site. He's currently showing a 7 seat gain for the GOP, for what it's worth.
Of course all this stuff can change in a heart beat one way or another, (as Scott Brown demonstrated). And the election is a full 9 months away...which is an eternity in politics. But given the current environment...and if the GOP puts up the right candidates which stick to a real conservative message, it should be a good November.
Election Day finally arrived in Massachusetts and the results are nothing short of a miracle.
In one of the bluest of the blue states, (where Obama won by 61%), an unknown Republican managed to win "Ted Kennedy's seat" in the United States Senate.
Thank you, Barack Obama.
Even before the campaign was over, the blame game began and Democrats pronounced it all Martha Coakley's fault. The long knives came out.
The Democrat finger pointing is important to note because they are essentially trying to absolve Congress and Obama from any and all blame for how this race played out. They have been all over the place telling anyone with a microphone or TV camera that it had nothing to do with what was going on in Washington. It was "all local" they say, which is the same spin we heard after the big Republican gains in Virginia and New Jersey two months ago. read more »
the latest polls
Here's a snapshot of all the latest polls in the Massachusetts Senate race. Long story short, it's looking like Scott Brown's decision to turn the race into a virtual referendum on ObamaCare was brilliant. In deep blue Massachusetts no less.
1) Does ObamaCare pass?
2) If he actually wins this thing, how many democrats announce they won't be running for re-election by the end of the month?
It can happen!
It's looking more and more possible each day.
Yesterday's Rasmussen poll only had them apart by one point, so anything can happen, depending on turnout.
Can you imagine the political implications (not just to ObamaCare) of a Republican winning "the Kennedy Seat"?
But now ALL conservatives, no matter what state you're in, have a chance to make a difference.
The campaign has set up a "call from home" program and EVERY conservative in America can help. Are you willing to make 15 or more calls to stop the radical left agenda by the Obama/Reid/Pelosi team?
Another option is that you can make a contribution...but just as importantly, if you can't send any funds...you can make some calls and help the cause.
If you want to make a contribution...just visit the Scott Brown for U.S. Senate Web Page.
If you are willing to make some phone calls...sign up here
One more vote. That's all it will take to stop the health care bill in the Senate.
Pitch in and help Scott Brown get that vote for us next Tuesday.
some tea leaves
Let's preface this post by stating the obvious that's it's way to early to make any firm predictions. A month, much less 14, can be an eternity in politics.
That said, Michael Barone over at the Washington Examiner has some interesting numbers and historical facts to take a look at:
Currently Real Clear Politics reports that Democrats lead Republicans by only 41%-39% in the generic ballot. But there’s a clear difference between the results shown by pollster Scott Rasmussen, who limits his surveys to those he determines to be likely voters, and other pollsters. Rasmussen currently shows Republicans leading 42%-38%...Now comes political scientist Andrew Gelman, on the 538.com blog run by the Obama enthusiast and gifted numbers cruncher Nate Silver, saying that the generic polls suggest that Republicans could recapture a House majority in 2010. I have noticed that over the years generic vote questions have tended to understate the ultimate Republican percentage of the popular vote for the House; Gelman says his research indicates “the out-party consistently outperforms the generic polls.” Gelman says that in current generic polls Democrats get 52% of the two-party vote, comparable to what they got in 1946, 1994 and 1998—all years in which Republicans got more popular votes and won more House seats than Democrats.......Ronald Reagan’s Republicans and Bill Clinton’s Democrats lost more seats in year 2 than in year 6; only George W. Bush of the presidents of the last 30 years saw his party do worse in year 6 than year 2. Reagan’s Republicans suffered from recession and high unemployment; Clinton’s Democrats suffered from liberal overreach. Both factors could—not necessarily will, but could—work against Barack Obama’s Democrats next year.
Again, it's early, but those are facts. And they show that the GOP is likely to have a tremendous opportunity next year. The trick is not to blow the opportunity. Use it to paint a clear contrast between yourself and what the public is rebelling against. read more »
After he spoke up during Obama's speech last night and said what everyone was yelling at their television screens, my own Congressman from here in SC is being targeted by the liberals, as you can imagine.
They're doing their best to get all the leftie "nutroots" crowd around the country to go to his likely 2010 Democrat opponent's website and give him money. So far, they claim they've raised over $100,000, but who knows.
What we do know is that there are a lot of conservatives around the country who feel just as "emotional" about the fact that Obamacare will indeed provide health care for illegal aliens as Joe did during Obama's speech. And we've got money too.
Solution. Click here and contribute to Joe Wilson's campaign. Today.
Then pass a note on to others and encourage them to do the same thing.
Are you on Twitter? Click here and "tweet" a link to his site to your followers.
Joe's a good conservative. And he deserves our support.
The thing that really gets me about this is the mock ingignation of the folks on the left over this. These being the same people who cheered on as dozens and dozens of Democrats booed Bush during State of the Union speeches. read more »
What a difference an upcoming election makes
You can always tell when a politician has an election coming up that they're a little worried about. They start to talk like this:
Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., announced Wednesday that she would not support a bill that included a public option because she believed it would be too expensive.
Lincoln told the Elder Law Task Force at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences that a public option would create another entitlement program.
"And we can't afford that right now as a nation," she said.
I guess the only surprise is that it took her this long (and a month of being back home) to come to that conclussion. And I'm sure that the fact that she's up for re-election next year in a state the didn't go blue even with Obama at the top of the ticket has nothing to do with it.
But we'll take what we can get.
Don't get too secure though, keep speaking out. Especially if you live in Arkansas.
Click here to contact your members of Congress on the health care issue.