2010 Election Projections
The 2010 election is (finally) upon us, which means it’s time to engage in that favorite of political pastimes – prognostication. After all, what good is an election without predictions?
For pretty much every election for the past twenty years I’ve kept my own predictions and have done fairly well, (but I did miss that Al Gore and the popular vote thing in 2000…and thought Hillary would be the nominee in 2008). But it seems like it would be more interesting to put it in a column for everyone to see and comment on. Plus, given the multitude of pollsters (and even online markets such as Intrade), there is so much information out there that everyone can now get in on the act.
With that in mind, I decided to put together an online survey that everyone can use to make their own “official” predictions. The entrant who comes closest will get a free download of the “Grassroots 101: Fundamentals of Grassroots Politics” series".
On to the predictions…
The US House of Representatives
Republicans will win control of the House of Representatives by making a net gain of at least sixty-five seats. Yes, I know that’s a little past the high end of the “smart money”, but I think the frustration (and excitement) among conservatives and Republicans is tremendous and liberals are deflated. I also think Obama’s messaging has been awful (and poorly targeted), and pollsters have been intentionally underselling what they’re seeing in the numbers, simply because they find it historically hard to believe and don’t want to look foolish.
For the House, this will be a case of a rising tide lifting an awful lot of boats.
The US Senate
In the Senate, Republicans will make a net gain of eight seats, giving the GOP forty-nine in the new Congress. (Result: Democrats will still be stuck with some of the stigma of “control” of Congress while Obama’s running for re-election…and Joe Biden ends up having to spend more time there in case of the occasional tie vote).
More importantly, it looks like a half dozen of the new Republican senators will be from the new “DeMint wing” of the GOP caucus, adding some more steel to Senate Republican spines when it comes to standing firm on constitutional grounds – or just being obstinate when necessary.
Of course it’s one thing to predict a number of seats, but it’s another to pick actual races. With that in mind, I’ll list the closer ones here along with my predictions. (These will also be on the survey for you to choose).
Alaska: Joe Miller (R) – Connecticut: Blumenthal (D) – Colorado: Buck (R) – Florida: Rubio (R) – Pennsylvania: Toomey (R) – Nevada: Angle (R) – California: Boxer (D) – Wisconsin: Johnson
The GOP will control a total of thirty-four governorships after Election Day. This is important for reasons that extend beyond just policy. The governors are the political bench of any national party, and position a party well for future White House runs, as it’s always good to have your party hold the governorship of a state during a presidential election. Sitting governors help with fundraising and the political machinery of turning out votes, (just ask Obama). It also helps stack the bench with future potential candidates for the Presidency, (as well as the US Senate).
Just as important, these governors, paired with increased GOP control of state legislatures, comes at the perfect time in the ten year cycle when all legislative district maps, (for state legislative and congressional districts), will be redrawn. Given that the Census results will reapportion several US House seats from blue to red states, and as existing district lines get redrawn, it will be easier in future elections for the GOP to hold the seats that they win this cycle.
Obama blames everyone but himself
Obama will blame pretty much everyone and everything for the Democrat’s loss except for himself or his policies. As is usually the case, when Democrats lose, it can’t possibly be because voters don’t like or want what Democrats are selling, it has to be because they just don’t know what’s best for them – or those evil Republicans distracted them.
This is already underway, as Obama was recently quoted suggesting the voters aren’t “thinking clearly”. (Too busy clinging to God and guns perhaps?) Of course when Democrats win, like Obama did in 2008, voters are paying perfect attention and the result is a mandate for “change”.
New excuse for this year: voters are being blinded by mysterious “foreign” money.
The media puts the public on the couch
Of course I would never really recommend anyone actually watch MSNBC, but in this case it could be fun. Keep an eye out for that odd expression on Chris Matthews’ face, which lets you know he’s getting another tingle…but this time “down” his leg. Look for the media to blame Democrat losses on the fact that people (especially “white” people) are just angry – whether at the economy, or that a black man is President, (much like Peter Jennings did back in 1994, when he compared voters to two year old children having a “temper tantrum”).
Also, be on the lookout for psychiatrists to make the rounds on the news shows “explaining” what could have possibly motivated voters to behave this way.
The lame duck
Once the shock of the loss (and the booze) wears off, every liberal interest group in America will focus like a laser beam on getting as much as they can from Congress before the party’s over and Republicans are sworn in. Republicans should block anything and everything – except a complete renewal of the Bush tax cuts.
What do you think?
Now it’s your turn. Of course comments are welcome, but don’t forget to click here and take the survey and enter the official “Conservative Outpost 2010 Election Projection Sweepstakes”. We’ll break down the results and comments next week as well as announce the winner.